Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Toluca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santos Laguna

R. Sambueza 62' (pen)

William da Silva 14'

J. Furch 4'

9/2/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Toluca56%

×Draw22%

Santos Laguna22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.14

Toluca

1.97

Santos Laguna

1.14

Toluca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 144 away

2.07

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Toluca

2.07

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Toluca

1.18

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

78%

Toluca or Santos Laguna

78%

Draw or Santos Laguna

44%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

33%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

86%

Toluca 2+ goals

58%

Toluca 3+ goals

31%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

68%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

32%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

72%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.97

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Toluca scores more

56%

level

22%

Santos Laguna scores more

22%

Toluca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Talavera

Toluca · G

7.4

Match Events

4'

J. Furch

8'

Osvaldo González

9'

Luis Quiñones

14'

William da Silva↳ E. Triverio

31'

S. García← F. Tobio

34'

Dória

56'

R. Sambueza← E. Triverio

61'

José Abella

62'

A. Preciado← J. Isijara

62'

R. SambuezaPenalty

74'

Santiago García

77'

Alfredo Talavera

78'

D. Quiñónes← O. Martínez

83'

G. Arteaga← J. Angulo

86'

P. Barrientos← William da Silva

88'

Pablo Barrientos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TolucaSantos

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots17

3Corners6

15Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots17

6On Target6

5Off Target8

5Blocked3

8Inside Box8

8Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

302Total Passes341

237Accurate Passes274

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1

Liga MX: Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna

Toluca beat Santos Laguna 2-1 in Liga MX on September 2, 2018.

Goals: J. Furch (4'), William da Silva (14'), R. Sambueza (62' pen).

Santos Laguna controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.

Toluca vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Toluca 2–1 Santos Laguna