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Toluca vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
CANC
00:00
Leon
Leon
4/19/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Toluca50%
×Draw23%
Leon26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.77
Leon
1.22

Toluca creates 45% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 145 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Leon
1.26

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Leon
1.48

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
74%
Toluca or Leon
77%
Draw or Leon
50%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
27%
Leon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
83%
Toluca 2+ goals
53%
Toluca 3+ goals
26%
Leon 1+ goals
70%
Leon 2+ goals
34%
Leon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
66%
Leon (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.77

Leon attack 1.26 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Toluca scores more
50%
level
23%
Leon scores more
26%

Toluca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toluca vs Leon — Match Preview

Toluca face Leon on April 19, 2020 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Toluca host Leon at Estadio Nemesio Díez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.