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Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers — A-League 2015

Sydney
Sydney
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
M. Ninković 88'
10/24/2015A-LeagueA-League · Round 3Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sydney48%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.83
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.37

Sydney creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.85
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.43

allows per match

Sydney
1.31
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.81

finishing

Sydney+0.15scores more
Western Sydney Wanderers-0.76scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
71%
Sydney or Western Sydney Wanderers
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
52%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
27%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
84%
Sydney 2+ goals
54%
Sydney 3+ goals
28%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
75%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
40%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
63%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.81 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.85 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.43 + Sydney defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sydney scores more
48%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
29%

Sydney at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. JurmanSydneySydney · D
8.4

Match Events

12'
D. Vidošić← R. Castelen
36'
Milos Dimitrijevic
38'
Scott Neville
54'
B. Hamill← S. Neville
61'
A. Hoole← F. Hološko
61'
M. Tavares← M. Dimitrijević
65'
Jacques Faty
73'
M. Simon← S. Smeltz
76'
Alberto
83'
M. Bridge← M. Nichols
85'
Nikolai Topor-Stanley
88'
M. Ninković
89'
Miloš Ninković
90'
Sebastian Ryall

Possession

46%Sydney

Shots

4Sydney

Pass accuracy

50%Sydney

Statistics

SydneyWestern
Overview
46%Possession54%
4Total Shots11
1Corners7
0Fouls0
Shots
4Total Shots11
1On Target2
3Off Target5
0Blocked4
3Inside Box6
1Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
362Total Passes416
269Accurate Passes314
74%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
0Fouls0
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers

Sydney beat Western Sydney Wanderers 1-0 in A-League on October 24, 2015.

Goals: M. Ninković (88').

Western Sydney Wanderers controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 4.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.