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Toledo vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Conquense
Conquense
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 1Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Toledo47%
×Draw28%
Conquense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.35
Conquense
0.89

Toledo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
75%
Toledo or Conquense
72%
Draw or Conquense
53%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
23%
Conquense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
74%
Toledo 2+ goals
39%
Toledo 3+ goals
15%
Conquense 1+ goals
59%
Conquense 2+ goals
22%
Conquense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
66%
Conquense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Conquense attack 1.22 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Toledo scores more
47%
level
28%
Conquense scores more
25%

Toledo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Toledo 3–0 Conquense

Toledo beat Conquense 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.