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Toledo vs Albacete II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Toledo
Toledo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Albacete II
Albacete II
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 1Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Toledo49%
×Draw26%
Albacete II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toledo
1.47
Albacete II
0.96

Toledo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

creates per match

Toledo
1.84
Albacete II
1.38

allows per match

Toledo
0.55
Albacete II
1.09

finishing

Toledo+0.00on par
Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toledo ↓

Albacete II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Toledo or draw
75%
Toledo or Albacete II
74%
Draw or Albacete II
51%

Winning margin

Toledo wins by 2+
24%
Albacete II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Toledo 1+ goals
77%
Toledo 2+ goals
43%
Toledo 3+ goals
18%
Albacete II 1+ goals
62%
Albacete II 2+ goals
25%
Albacete II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Toledo (draw refunded)
66%
Albacete II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toledo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.55 · 93 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toledo attack 1.84 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.47

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Toledo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Toledo scores more
49%
level
26%
Albacete II scores more
25%

Toledo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Toledo 1–1 Albacete II

Toledo and Albacete II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo in Toledo.