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Tokyo Verdy vs Urawa — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Urawa
Urawa
10/19/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tokyo Verdy33%
×Draw27%
Urawa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.15
Urawa
1.31

Urawa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Urawa
1.42

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Urawa
1.35

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Urawa-0.13scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
60%
Tokyo Verdy or Urawa
73%
Draw or Urawa
67%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
13%
Urawa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
68%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
32%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
11%
Urawa 1+ goals
73%
Urawa 2+ goals
38%
Urawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
45%
Urawa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Urawa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Urawa attack 1.42 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
33%
level
27%
Urawa scores more
40%

Urawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 2–1 Urawa

Tokyo Verdy beat Urawa 2-1 in J1 League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.