Tokyo Verdy 2–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Tokyo Verdy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

10/21/2018

J2 League · Round 38Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tokyo Verdy37%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokyo VerdyExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.14

Tokyo Verdy

1.19

Tokushima Vortis

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 149 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.08

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.36

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.08

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw

65%

Tokyo Verdy or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

63%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

16%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

70%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

33%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

12%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

68%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

52%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more

37%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

35%

Tokyo Verdy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff