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Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
5/5/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 12Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tokyo Verdy47%
×Draw26%
Thespakusatsu Gunma27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.45
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.02

Tokyo Verdy creates 42% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 105 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.97

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.53

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
73%
Tokyo Verdy or Thespakusatsu Gunma
74%
Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma
53%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
23%
Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
77%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
42%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
18%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
64%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
64%
Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
47%
level
26%
Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
27%

Tokyo Verdy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

Tokyo Verdy beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 3-1 in J2 League on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.