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Tokyo Verdy vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
11/22/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tokyo Verdy46%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.43
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.03

Tokyo Verdy creates 39% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 168 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
73%
Tokyo Verdy or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
54%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
22%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
76%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
42%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
17%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
64%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
28%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
63%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 130 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
46%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
27%

Tokyo Verdy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Tokyo Verdy beat Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1 in J2 League on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.