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Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
Preview
05:00
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
11/21/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 15Ajinomoto Stadium
42%
Nagoya Grampus
model favours
32%25%42%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tokyo Verdy32%
×Draw25%
Nagoya Grampus42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.25
Nagoya Grampus
1.48

Nagoya Grampus creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Nagoya Grampus
1.77

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Nagoya Grampus
1.56

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Nagoya Grampus-0.17scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
58%
Tokyo Verdy or Nagoya Grampus
75%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
68%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
14%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
36%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
77%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
43%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
43%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.77 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
32%
level
25%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
42%

Nagoya Grampus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
Nagoya Grampus
Balanced
47%Possession50%
76%Pass accuracy77%
10.2Shots12.1
0.88xGBiggest gap1.59
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampus

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Tokyo Verdy
1
Draws
1
Nagoya Grampus
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 25%
0–02–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Verdy
LDLWD
Grampus
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tokyo Verdy host Nagoya Grampus

November 21, 2026: Tokyo Verdy take on Nagoya Grampus in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tokyo Verdy host Nagoya Grampus at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.