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Tokyo Verdy vs Mito Hollyhock — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
Preview
11:00
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
3/13/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Ajinomoto Stadium
Big match
42%
Tokyo Verdy
model favours
42%29%29%

Mito Hollyhock score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tokyo Verdy42%
×Draw29%
Mito Hollyhock29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.25
Mito Hollyhock
0.98

Tokyo Verdy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Mito Hollyhock
0.77

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Mito Hollyhock
1.56

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Mito Hollyhock-0.17scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Mito Hollyhock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
71%
Tokyo Verdy or Mito Hollyhock
71%
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
58%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
19%
Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
36%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%
Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
62%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
26%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
59%
Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mito Hollyhock attack 0.77 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
42%
level
29%
Mito Hollyhock scores more
29%

Tokyo Verdy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches
  • Mito Hollyhock win just 0% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
Mito Hollyhock
Balanced
47%PossessionBiggest gap54%
76%Pass accuracy81%
10.2Shots11.1
0.88xG0.83
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Tokyo VerdyMito Hollyhock

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Tokyo Verdy
2
Draws
2
Mito Hollyhock
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
1–03–10–02–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Verdy
LDLWD
Hollyhock
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tokyo Verdy host Mito Hollyhock

March 13, 2027: Tokyo Verdy take on Mito Hollyhock in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tokyo Verdy host Mito Hollyhock at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.