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Tokyo Verdy vs Mito Hollyhock — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
12/20/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 42Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tokyo Verdy41%
×Draw27%
Mito Hollyhock32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.33
Mito Hollyhock
1.14

Tokyo Verdy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 169 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Mito Hollyhock
1.19

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Mito Hollyhock
1.31

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Mito Hollyhock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
68%
Tokyo Verdy or Mito Hollyhock
73%
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
59%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
19%
Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
74%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
38%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
15%
Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
68%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
32%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
56%
Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.19 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
41%
level
27%
Mito Hollyhock scores more
32%

Tokyo Verdy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Mito Hollyhock

Mito Hollyhock beat Tokyo Verdy 1-0 in J2 League on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.