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Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
Preview
10:00
Kashima
Kashima
8/29/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Ajinomoto Stadium
Big match
39%
Kashima
model favours
34%27%39%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tokyo Verdy34%
×Draw27%
Kashima39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.21
Kashima
1.33

Kashima creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Kashima
1.49

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.18
Kashima
1.47

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.35scores more
Kashima+0.08on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
61%
Tokyo Verdy or Kashima
73%
Draw or Kashima
66%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
14%
Kashima wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
70%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
34%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
12%
Kashima 1+ goals
74%
Kashima 2+ goals
38%
Kashima 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
46%
Kashima (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 7 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Kashima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kashima attack 1.49 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
34%
level
27%
Kashima scores more
39%

Kashima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashima score first in only 21% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches
  • Style contrast — Tokyo Verdy play Defensively solid, Kashima Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
Kashima
Attack-heavy
45%Possession53%
76%Pass accuracy80%
10.7Shots13.6
0.87xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Tokyo VerdyKashima

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Tokyo Verdy
1
Draws
3
Kashima
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 50%
2–10–20–10–42–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Verdy
LDLWD
Kashima
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tokyo Verdy host Kashima

August 29, 2026: Tokyo Verdy take on Kashima in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tokyo Verdy host Kashima at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.