Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Gamba Osaka: Result & Stats

Tokyo Verdy

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gamba Osaka

5/15/2024

J1 League · Round 14Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tokyo Verdy34%

×Draw29%

Gamba Osaka37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokyo VerdyExpected goals in this matchGamba Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.13

Tokyo Verdy

1.06

Gamba Osaka

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.94

creates per match

1.06

1.20

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy

0.94

Gamba Osaka

1.06

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.20

Gamba Osaka

1.19

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more

Gamba Osaka-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Gamba Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw

63%

Tokyo Verdy or Gamba Osaka

71%

Draw or Gamba Osaka

66%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

13%

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

65%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

29%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

9%

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

68%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

31%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

48%

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Gamba Osaka attack 1.06 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more

34%

level

29%

Gamba Osaka scores more

37%

Gamba Osaka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff