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Tokushima Vortis vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
3/6/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tokushima Vortis32%
×Draw27%
Vissel Kobe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.15
Vissel Kobe
1.34

Vissel Kobe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 148 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.95
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.26
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
59%
Tokushima Vortis or Vissel Kobe
73%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
68%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
13%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
68%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
32%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
74%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
39%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
44%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.95 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
32%
level
27%
Vissel Kobe scores more
41%

Vissel Kobe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokushima Vortis 1–1 Vissel Kobe

Tokushima Vortis and Vissel Kobe drew 1-1 in J1 League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.