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Tokushima Vortis vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
8/27/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 33Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tokushima Vortis48%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.41
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.94

Tokushima Vortis creates 50% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 168 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
75%
Tokushima Vortis or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
52%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
23%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
76%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
41%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
17%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
61%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
24%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
66%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
48%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
25%

Tokushima Vortis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Tokushima Vortis beat Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1 in J2 League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.