Tokushima Vortis 1–1 Oita Trinita: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oita Trinita

T. Miyashiro 70'

Y. Machida 80'

10/23/2021

J1 League · Round 33Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tokushima Vortis34%

×Draw27%

Oita Trinita39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchOita Trinita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.29

Tokushima Vortis

1.18

Oita Trinita

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

1.57

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.86

Oita Trinita

1.00

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.57

Oita Trinita

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Oita Trinita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

61%

Tokushima Vortis or Oita Trinita

73%

Draw or Oita Trinita

66%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

14%

Oita Trinita wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

69%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

33%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

12%

Oita Trinita 1+ goals

72%

Oita Trinita 2+ goals

37%

Oita Trinita 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

46%

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.86 + Oita Trinita defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.18

Oita Trinita attack 1.00 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

34%

level

27%

Oita Trinita scores more

39%

Oita Trinita at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Iwao

Tokushima Vortis · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

24'

46'

54'

59'

62'

K. Inoue← R. Tone

62'

N. Nomura← A. Watanabe

62'

H. Goya← K. Isa

70'

T. Miyashiro

72'

Matheus Pereira← Y. Koide

73'

S. Nagasawa← Y. Kagawa

80'

Y. Machida

86'

T. Suzuki← J. Fujita

86'

A. Hamashita← Y. Kakita

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TokushimaOita

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots7

7Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target3

6Off Target3

6Blocked1

13Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

391Total Passes375

296Accurate Passes276

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

J1 League: Tokushima Vortis 1–1 Oita Trinita

Tokushima Vortis and Oita Trinita drew 1-1 in J1 League on October 23, 2021.

Goals: T. Miyashiro (70'), Y. Machida (80').

Tokushima Vortis controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.

Tokushima Vortis vs Oita Trinita — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Tokushima Vortis 1–1 Oita Trinita