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Tokushima Vortis vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
5/3/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 13Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Tokushima Vortis50%
×Draw26%
Ehime FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.48
Ehime FC
0.94

Tokushima Vortis creates 57% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 123 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
76%
Tokushima Vortis or Ehime FC
74%
Draw or Ehime FC
50%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
25%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
77%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
43%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
19%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
61%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
24%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
67%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
50%
level
26%
Ehime FC scores more
24%

Tokushima Vortis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Ehime FC

Tokushima Vortis and Ehime FC drew 0-0 in J2 League on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.