Tochigi SC 0–0 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Tochigi SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yokohama FC

4/23/2022

J2 League · Round 11Kanseki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Tochigi SC29%

×Draw28%

Yokohama FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tochigi SCExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.26

Tochigi SC

0.99

Yokohama FC

1.26

Yokohama FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 86 away

0.99

creates per match

1.41

1.11

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tochigi SC

0.99

Yokohama FC

1.41

allows per match

Tochigi SC

1.11

Yokohama FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw

58%

Tochigi SC or Yokohama FC

72%

Draw or Yokohama FC

71%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

11%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

63%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

26%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

8%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

72%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

36%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

41%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tochigi SC scores more

29%

level

28%

Yokohama FC scores more

42%

Yokohama FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff