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Tochigi SC vs Ventforet Kofu — J2 League 2018

Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
7/17/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 23Tochigi Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Tochigi SC32%
×Draw29%
Ventforet Kofu39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochigi SC
1.06
Ventforet Kofu
1.20

Ventforet Kofu creates 13% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 166 away

creates per match

Tochigi SC
0.99
Ventforet Kofu
1.29

allows per match

Tochigi SC
1.11
Ventforet Kofu
1.14

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par
Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Ventforet Kofu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw
61%
Tochigi SC or Ventforet Kofu
71%
Draw or Ventforet Kofu
68%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+
12%
Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals
65%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
29%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
9%
Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
70%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
34%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
45%
Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tochigi SC scores more
32%
level
29%
Ventforet Kofu scores more
39%

Ventforet Kofu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochigi SC vs Ventforet Kofu

Ventforet Kofu beat Tochigi SC 1-0 in J2 League on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Tochigi Green Stadium in Utsunomiya.