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Titanes FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Titanes FC
Titanes FC
PST
19:30
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
7/3/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio de Fútbol Universidad de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Titanes FC48%
×Draw26%
Yaracuy FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Titanes FC
1.52
Yaracuy FC
1.06

Titanes FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 47 away

creates per match

Titanes FC
1.69
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Titanes FC
0.83
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw
74%
Titanes FC or Yaracuy FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
52%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+
24%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals
78%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
45%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
20%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
65%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
29%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)
64%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 89 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 1.69 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Titanes FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Titanes FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Yaracuy FC scores more
26%

Titanes FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Titanes FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Titanes FC face Yaracuy FC (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Titanes FC hosting Yaracuy FC. Match starts July 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Titanes FC host Yaracuy FC at Estadio de Fútbol Universidad de Los Andes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.