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Titanes FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Titanes FC
Titanes FC
FT
4 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
4/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 11Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Titanes FC49%
×Draw24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Titanes FC
1.67
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.16

Titanes FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 37 away

creates per match

Titanes FC
1.69
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Titanes FC
0.83
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Titanes FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Titanes FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Titanes FC or draw
73%
Titanes FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
76%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
51%

Winning margin

Titanes FC wins by 2+
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Titanes FC 1+ goals
81%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
50%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
23%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
69%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
32%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Titanes FC (draw refunded)
65%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Titanes FC at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.83 · 89 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Titanes FC attack 1.69 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Titanes FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Titanes FC scores more
49%
level
24%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
27%

Titanes FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Titanes FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Titanes FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Titanes FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 4-0 in Segunda División on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).