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Tiszaújváros vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
11/12/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 15Sport Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Tiszaújváros48%
×Draw23%
Sényő Carnifex29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiszaújváros
1.84
Sényő Carnifex
1.40

Tiszaújváros creates 31% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tiszaújváros
1.62
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Tiszaújváros
1.49
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Tiszaújváros+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiszaújváros ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tiszaújváros or draw
71%
Tiszaújváros or Sényő Carnifex
77%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
52%

Winning margin

Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
26%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
84%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
55%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
28%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
75%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
41%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
62%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiszaújváros at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiszaújváros attack 1.62 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tiszaújváros scores more
48%
level
23%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
29%

Tiszaújváros at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiszaújváros vs Sényő Carnifex

Tiszaújváros and Sényő Carnifex drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sport Park in Tiszaújváros.