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Tirana vs Partizani — Superliga 2018

Tirana
Tirana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Partizani
Partizani
12/3/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 15Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Tirana40%
×Draw28%
Partizani32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tirana
1.25
Partizani
1.08

Tirana creates 16% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 146 away

creates per match

Tirana
1.49
Partizani
1.19

allows per match

Tirana
0.97
Partizani
1.02

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par
Partizani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Partizani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tirana or draw
68%
Tirana or Partizani
72%
Draw or Partizani
60%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+
18%
Partizani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals
71%
Tirana 2+ goals
36%
Tirana 3+ goals
13%
Partizani 1+ goals
66%
Partizani 2+ goals
29%
Partizani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)
56%
Partizani (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 144 matches

Partizani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 1.49 + Partizani defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Partizani attack 1.19 + Tirana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tirana scores more
40%
level
28%
Partizani scores more
32%

Tirana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Tirana 1–1 Partizani

Tirana and Partizani drew 1-1 in Superliga on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.