TIL 2020 3–0 Øvrevoll Hosle: Result & Stats

TIL 2020

FT

3 – 0

Øvrevoll Hosle

5/28/2022

1. Division Women · Round 10Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

TIL 202054%

×Draw21%

Øvrevoll Hosle24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TIL 2020Expected goals in this matchØvrevoll Hosle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.32

TIL 2020

2.06

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.32

TIL 2020 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

1.90

creates per match

1.54

1.10

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

TIL 2020

1.90

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.54

allows per match

TIL 2020

1.10

Øvrevoll Hosle

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TIL 2020+0.00on par

Øvrevoll Hosle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

TIL 2020 or draw

76%

TIL 2020 or Øvrevoll Hosle

79%

Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle

46%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 wins by 2+

32%

Øvrevoll Hosle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

TIL 2020 1+ goals

87%

TIL 2020 2+ goals

61%

TIL 2020 3+ goals

34%

Øvrevoll Hosle 1+ goals

73%

Øvrevoll Hosle 2+ goals

38%

Øvrevoll Hosle 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 (draw refunded)

69%

Øvrevoll Hosle (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 attack 1.90 + Øvrevoll Hosle defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Øvrevoll Hosle attack 1.54 + TIL 2020 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TIL 2020 scores more

54%

level

21%

Øvrevoll Hosle scores more

24%

TIL 2020 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TIL 2020 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff