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TIL 2020 vs Fortuna Ålesund — 1. Division Women 2022

TIL 2020
TIL 2020
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Ålesund
Fortuna Ålesund
S. Simonsen 26'
8/24/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 13Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

TIL 202042%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Ålesund34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TIL 2020
1.57
Fortuna Ålesund
1.39

TIL 2020 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

creates per match

TIL 2020
1.90
Fortuna Ålesund
1.67

allows per match

TIL 2020
1.10
Fortuna Ålesund
1.25

finishing

TIL 2020+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 ↓

Fortuna Ålesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TIL 2020 or draw
66%
TIL 2020 or Fortuna Ålesund
76%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund
58%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 wins by 2+
21%
Fortuna Ålesund wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TIL 2020 1+ goals
79%
TIL 2020 2+ goals
46%
TIL 2020 3+ goals
21%
Fortuna Ålesund 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Ålesund 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Ålesund 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 (draw refunded)
55%
Fortuna Ålesund (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Fortuna Ålesund away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 attack 1.90 + Fortuna Ålesund defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Fortuna Ålesund attack 1.67 + TIL 2020 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TIL 2020 scores more
42%
level
24%
Fortuna Ålesund scores more
34%

TIL 2020 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TIL 2020 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
S. Simonsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TIL 2020 vs Fortuna Ålesund

TIL 2020 beat Fortuna Ålesund 1-0 in 1. Division Women on August 24, 2022.

Goals: S. Simonsen (26').

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.