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Tihad Casablanca vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
FT
1 – 1
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
12/29/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Raja Roche Noire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tihad Casablanca39%
×Draw28%
Racing de Casablanca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tihad Casablanca
1.21
Racing de Casablanca
1.08

Tihad Casablanca creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 120 away

creates per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tihad Casablanca ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tihad Casablanca or draw
67%
Tihad Casablanca or Racing de Casablanca
72%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
61%

Winning margin

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
17%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
70%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
34%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
12%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
66%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
29%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
54%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tihad Casablanca at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tihad Casablanca attack 1.16 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tihad Casablanca scores more
39%
level
28%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
33%

Tihad Casablanca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tihad Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Tihad Casablanca 1–1 Racing de Casablanca

Tihad Casablanca and Racing de Casablanca drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Raja Roche Noire in Casablanca.