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Tihad Casablanca vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
FT
1 – 1
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
9/29/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Raja Roche Noire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tihad Casablanca40%
×Draw29%
Chabab Ben Guerir30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tihad Casablanca
1.19
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.99

Tihad Casablanca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 120 away

creates per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tihad Casablanca ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tihad Casablanca or draw
70%
Tihad Casablanca or Chabab Ben Guerir
71%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
60%

Winning margin

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
17%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
70%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
33%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
12%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
63%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
26%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
57%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tihad Casablanca at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tihad Casablanca attack 1.16 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tihad Casablanca scores more
40%
level
29%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
30%

Tihad Casablanca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tihad Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Tihad Casablanca 1–1 Chabab Ben Guerir

Tihad Casablanca and Chabab Ben Guerir drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Raja Roche Noire in Casablanca.