Tigres UANL 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Tigres UANL

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guadalajara Chivas

1/22/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tigres UANL49%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.04

Tigres UANL

1.53

Guadalajara Chivas

1.04

Tigres UANL creates 47% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 146 away

1.83

creates per match

1.18

0.91

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Tigres UANL

1.83

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.91

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

74%

Tigres UANL or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

51%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

25%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

78%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

45%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

20%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

65%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

28%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

65%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

49%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

26%

Tigres UANL at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff