Tigres UANL 2–1 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Tigres UANL

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Club Queretaro

J. Caicedo 65'

N. López 19'

A. Nahuelpán 25' (pen)

7/31/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Tigres UANL57%

×Draw23%

Club Queretaro20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.93

Tigres UANL

1.77

Club Queretaro

0.93

Tigres UANL creates 90% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.08

creates per match

1.06

0.79

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tigres UANL

2.08

Club Queretaro

1.06

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.79

Club Queretaro

1.46

+1.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Tigres UANL+1.12scores more

Club Queretaro-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

80%

Tigres UANL or Club Queretaro

77%

Draw or Club Queretaro

43%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

32%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

83%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

53%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

26%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

61%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

24%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

74%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.79 · 5 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.08 + Club Queretaro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Club Queretaro attack 1.06 + Tigres UANL defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

57%

level

23%

Club Queretaro scores more

20%

Tigres UANL at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. López

Tigres UANL · F

8.5

Match Events

19'

N. López↳ R. Fulgencio

23'

Igor Lichnovsky

25'

A. NahuelpánPenalty

45+5'

Antonio Rodríguez

60'

E. Ayón← A. Sepúlveda

61'

J. Caicedo← I. Lichnovsky

65'

J. Caicedo↳ N. López

70'

Jordy CaicedoCard upgrade

71'

Jordy Caicedo

77'

J. Vigón← R. Fulgencio

77'

H. Ayala← N. López

77'

A. Figueroa← P. Barrera

77'

D. Cabrera← J. Hernández

79'

Jesús Angulo

80'

C. Aboagye← K. Escamilla

80'

R. Torres← O. Mendoza

83'

88'

88'

90+1'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigresClub

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots12

4Corners3

8Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target6

6Blocked2

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

474Total Passes274

398Accurate Passes201

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards1