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Tigres UANL vs Club America — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club America
Club America
11/12/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 161+ matches

Tigres UANL43%
×Draw26%
Club America32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.48
Club America
1.23

Tigres UANL creates 20% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 164 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Club America
1.54

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Club America
1.14

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Club America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
68%
Tigres UANL or Club America
74%
Draw or Club America
57%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
21%
Club America wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
77%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
43%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
19%
Club America 1+ goals
71%
Club America 2+ goals
35%
Club America 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
58%
Club America (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Club America away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Club America attack 1.54 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
43%
level
26%
Club America scores more
32%

Tigres UANL at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Club America

Tigres UANL and Club America drew 0-0 in Liga MX on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.