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Tigres FC vs Huila — Copa Colombia 2019

Tigres FC
Tigres FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huila
Huila
3/16/2022Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tigres FC43%
×Draw27%
Huila30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres FC
1.38
Huila
1.10

Tigres FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Tigres FC
1.26
Huila
1.25

allows per match

Tigres FC
0.95
Huila
1.50

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw
70%
Tigres FC or Huila
73%
Draw or Huila
57%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+
20%
Huila wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals
75%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
40%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
16%
Huila 1+ goals
67%
Huila 2+ goals
30%
Huila 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)
59%
Huila (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Huila away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.26 + Huila defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huila attack 1.25 + Tigres FC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tigres FC scores more
43%
level
27%
Huila scores more
30%

Tigres FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Huila

Tigres FC beat Huila 2-0 in Copa Colombia on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..