Tianjin Teda 1–1 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hebei Zhongji

Hui Jiakang 25'

Zhang Chengdong 86'

3/3/2018

Super League · Round 1Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Tianjin Teda54%

×Draw22%

Hebei Zhongji23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.15

Tianjin Teda

1.89

Hebei Zhongji

1.15

Tianjin Teda creates 64% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 67 away

1.44

creates per match

0.94

1.35

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.44

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.35

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

77%

Tianjin Teda or Hebei Zhongji

78%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

46%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

31%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

85%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

56%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

29%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

68%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

32%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

70%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

54%

level

22%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

23%

Tianjin Teda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Gao Jiarun

Tianjin Teda · M

7.4

Match Events

25'

Hui Jiakang↳ Johnathan

46'

Zhao Yuhao← Hernanes

46'

Dong Xuesheng← Che Shiwei

55'

Ezequiel Lavezzi

56'

Yang Cao

74'

Guo Hao← Cao Yang

85'

Xu Tianyuan← Hu Rentian

86'

Zhang Chengdong↳ Dong Xuesheng

90'

Yang Wanshun← Li Yuanyi

90+2'

Zhou Liao← Zhao Yingjie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TianjinHebei

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots14

0Corners8

13Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots14

5On Target5

2Off Target6

0Blocked3

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

304Total Passes583

182Accurate Passes442

60%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1