Thy ThistedQ W 1–0 Nordsjælland W: Result & Stats

Thy ThistedQ W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nordsjælland W

4/3/2021

Kvindeliga · Championship Round - 1Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Thy ThistedQ W31%

×Draw25%

Nordsjælland W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thy ThistedQ WExpected goals in this matchNordsjælland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.52

Thy ThistedQ W

1.25

Nordsjælland W

1.52

Nordsjælland W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 81 away

1.26

creates per match

1.31

1.74

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Thy ThistedQ W

1.26

Nordsjælland W

1.31

allows per match

Thy ThistedQ W

1.74

Nordsjælland W

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par

Nordsjælland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thy ThistedQ W ↓

Nordsjælland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Thy ThistedQ W or draw

56%

Thy ThistedQ W or Nordsjælland W

75%

Draw or Nordsjælland W

69%

Winning margin

Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+

13%

Nordsjælland W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals

71%

Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals

36%

Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals

13%

Nordsjælland W 1+ goals

78%

Nordsjælland W 2+ goals

45%

Nordsjælland W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)

42%

Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thy ThistedQ W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

Nordsjælland W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.26 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nordsjælland W attack 1.31 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Thy ThistedQ W scores more

31%

level

25%

Nordsjælland W scores more

44%

Nordsjælland W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nordsjælland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff