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Thy ThistedQ W vs Brøndby W — Kvindeliga 2019

Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brøndby W
Brøndby W
9/26/2021KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 7Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Thy ThistedQ W27%
×Draw23%
Brøndby W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thy ThistedQ W
1.25
Brøndby W
1.77

Brøndby W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 81 away

creates per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.26
Brøndby W
1.79

allows per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.74
Brøndby W
1.25

finishing

Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par
Brøndby W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thy ThistedQ W ↓

Brøndby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Thy ThistedQ W or draw
50%
Thy ThistedQ W or Brøndby W
77%
Draw or Brøndby W
73%

Winning margin

Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
11%
Brøndby W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
71%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
36%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
13%
Brøndby W 1+ goals
83%
Brøndby W 2+ goals
53%
Brøndby W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
35%
Brøndby W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thy ThistedQ W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

Brøndby W away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.26 + Brøndby W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Brøndby W attack 1.79 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Thy ThistedQ W scores more
27%
level
23%
Brøndby W scores more
50%

Brøndby W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brøndby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Thy ThistedQ W 3–1 Brøndby W

Thy ThistedQ W beat Brøndby W 3-1 in Kvindeliga on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.