Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thunder Bay Chill vs Saint Louis — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
PST
23:00
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
7/8/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 51Chapples Park Stadium (Thunder Bay, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill41%
×Draw22%
Saint Louis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
1.83
Saint Louis
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Saint Louis
2.20

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Saint Louis
1.80

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
63%
Thunder Bay Chill or Saint Louis
78%
Draw or Saint Louis
59%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
21%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
84%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
54%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
28%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
83%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
52%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
52%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Saint Louis defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Saint Louis attack 2.20 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
41%
level
22%
Saint Louis scores more
37%

Thunder Bay Chill at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Thunder Bay Chill host Saint Louis

July 8, 2020: Thunder Bay Chill take on Saint Louis in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Thunder Bay Chill host Saint Louis at Chapples Park Stadium (Thunder Bay, Ontario).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.