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Thunder Bay Chill vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
PST
23:00
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
7/7/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 49Chapples Park Stadium (Thunder Bay, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill47%
×Draw24%
Kaw Valley29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
1.69
Kaw Valley
1.29

Thunder Bay Chill creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
71%
Thunder Bay Chill or Kaw Valley
76%
Draw or Kaw Valley
53%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
25%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
82%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
50%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
24%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
72%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
37%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
61%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
47%
level
24%
Kaw Valley scores more
29%

Thunder Bay Chill at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thunder Bay Chill face Kaw Valley (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Thunder Bay Chill hosting Kaw Valley. Match starts July 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Thunder Bay Chill host Kaw Valley at Chapples Park Stadium (Thunder Bay, Ontario).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.