Thisted FC 0–1 AB Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Thisted FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AB Copenhagen

E. Gomez 51'

10/28/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 13Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Thisted FC35%

×Draw26%

AB Copenhagen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thisted FCExpected goals in this matchAB Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.37

Thisted FC

1.27

AB Copenhagen

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 76 away

1.18

creates per match

1.54

1.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Thisted FC

1.18

AB Copenhagen

1.54

allows per match

Thisted FC

1.20

AB Copenhagen

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

AB Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw

61%

Thisted FC or AB Copenhagen

74%

Draw or AB Copenhagen

65%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+

15%

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals

72%

Thisted FC 2+ goals

36%

Thisted FC 3+ goals

14%

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

75%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

40%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)

47%

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.37 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thisted FC scores more

35%

level

26%

AB Copenhagen scores more

39%

AB Copenhagen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

E. Gomez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff