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Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
5/1/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 13Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma25%
×Draw28%
Yokohama FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.89
Yokohama FC
1.31

Yokohama FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 86 away

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.77
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.21
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw
54%
Thespakusatsu Gunma or Yokohama FC
72%
Draw or Yokohama FC
75%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
9%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
59%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
22%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
6%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
73%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
38%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
35%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.21 · 106 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
25%
level
28%
Yokohama FC scores more
46%

Yokohama FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Thespakusatsu Gunma 3–3 Yokohama FC

Thespakusatsu Gunma and Yokohama FC drew 3-3 in J2 League on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium in Maebashi.