Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–2 V-varen Nagasaki

Thespakusatsu Gunma

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

J. Kato 2'

Edigar Junio 75', 68'

4/10/2021

J2 League · Round 7Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma29%

×Draw28%

V-varen Nagasaki44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thespakusatsu GunmaExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.33

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.02

V-varen Nagasaki

1.33

V-varen Nagasaki creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 142 away

0.77

creates per match

1.43

1.23

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.77

V-varen Nagasaki

1.43

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.23

V-varen Nagasaki

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw

56%

Thespakusatsu Gunma or V-varen Nagasaki

72%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

71%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

11%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

64%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

27%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

8%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

74%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

38%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

40%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.26 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.43 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

29%

level

28%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

44%

V-varen Nagasaki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

18'

32'

35'

61'

Luan← Y. Otake

62'

62'

68'

75'

76'

K. Kubota← K. Okumura

76'

K. Shin← T. Uchida

80'

C. Togashi← Edigar Junio

88'

R. Isomura← Y. Kuwasaki

90+2'

Luan

90'

Y. Nakayama← S. Yoshinaga

Thespakusatsu

V-varen

30

4

3

25

26

20

▼

17

6

19

22

▼

Kuwasaki

7

⚽2

▼

Junio

1

Shimizu

3

Hatao

14

▼

Hirao

36

▼

Yoshinaga

2

Shirowa

6

▼

Uchida

8

Iwakami

11

▼

Tanaka

7

⚽

Kato

27

▼

Okumura

50

Omae

Manager: R. Okuno

62'▲S. Aoki←▼T. Tanaka

62'▲J. Kinjo←▼S. Hirao

76'▲K. Kubota←▼K. Okumura

76'▲K. Shin←▼T. Uchida

90'▲Y. Nakayama←▼S. Yoshinaga

Thespakusatsu Gunma substitutes

10Aoki15Kinjo16Kubota18Shin41Nakayama21Matsubara32Watanabe

Manager: T. Yoshida

61'▲Luan←▼Y. Otake

80'▲C. Togashi←▼Edigar Junio

88'▲R. Isomura←▼Y. Kuwasaki

V-varen Nagasaki substitutes

10Luan9Togashi8Isomura13Kato24Egawa27Tokura31Harada