Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
8/22/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 26Shoda Shoyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma37%
×Draw29%
Renofa Yamaguchi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.14
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 168 away

creates per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.77
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.21
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Thespakusatsu Gunma or draw
66%
Thespakusatsu Gunma or Renofa Yamaguchi
71%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
63%

Winning margin

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
15%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
68%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
32%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
11%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
66%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
30%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
52%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.21 · 106 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
37%
level
29%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
34%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Thespakusatsu Gunma beat Renofa Yamaguchi 3-0 in J2 League on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium in Maebashi.