Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 107+ matches
Thespakusatsu Gunma28%
Montedio Yamagata43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Montedio Yamagata creates 31% more chances
Season form · 107 home / 166 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Thespakusatsu Gunma ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Thespakusatsu Gunma at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches
Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.77 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95
Montedio Yamagata attack 1.25 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Montedio Yamagata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
JEF United Chiba
V-varen Nagasaki
IwakiMontedio Yamagata
Tokushima Vortis
Jubilo Iwata
Mito Hollyhock
Imabari
Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
Consadole Sapporo
Vegalta Sendai
Renofa Yamaguchi
Blaublitz Akita
Roasso Kumamoto
Ventforet Kofu
Kataller Toyama
Fujieda MYFC
Oita Trinita
Ehime FC
Yokohama FC
Biwako Shiga
Kagoshima United
Vanraure Hachinohe
Kanazawa
Tochigi SC
Matsumoto Yamaga
Tochigi City
Kamatamare Sanuki
Osaka
FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Kochi United
Parceiro NaganoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Thespakusatsu Gunma host Montedio Yamagata on Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 05:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–2 Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-1 in J2 League on May 1, 2021.
Goals: I. Fujita (36'), M. Hayashi (48'), T. Tanaka (84').
The match was played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium in Maebashi.