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The Villages vs Sarasota Metropolis — USL League Two 2018

The Villages
The Villages
PST
23:00
Sarasota Metropolis
Sarasota Metropolis
6/20/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 36The Villages Polo Field (The Villages, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

The Villages71%
×Draw16%
Sarasota Metropolis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Villages
2.70
Sarasota Metropolis
1.10

The Villages creates 145% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 5 away

creates per match

The Villages
2.80
Sarasota Metropolis
1.40

allows per match

The Villages
0.80
Sarasota Metropolis
2.60

finishing

The Villages+0.00on par
Sarasota Metropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Villages ↓

Sarasota Metropolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

The Villages or draw
87%
The Villages or Sarasota Metropolis
84%
Draw or Sarasota Metropolis
29%

Winning margin

The Villages wins by 2+
49%
Sarasota Metropolis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

The Villages 1+ goals
93%
The Villages 2+ goals
75%
The Villages 3+ goals
50%
Sarasota Metropolis 1+ goals
67%
Sarasota Metropolis 2+ goals
30%
Sarasota Metropolis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

The Villages (draw refunded)
84%
Sarasota Metropolis (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Villages at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Sarasota Metropolis away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Villages attack 2.80 + Sarasota Metropolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.70

Sarasota Metropolis attack 1.40 + The Villages defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

The Villages scores more
71%
level
16%
Sarasota Metropolis scores more
13%

The Villages at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

The Villages face Sarasota Metropolis (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with The Villages hosting Sarasota Metropolis. Match starts June 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

The Villages host Sarasota Metropolis at The Villages Polo Field (The Villages, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.