Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

The Villages vs Daytona — USL League Two 2018

The Villages
The Villages
PST
23:00
Daytona
Daytona
5/23/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 10The Villages Polo Field (The Villages, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

The Villages57%
×Draw25%
Daytona18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

The Villages
1.56
Daytona
0.74

The Villages creates 111% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 3 away

creates per match

The Villages
2.80
Daytona
0.67

allows per match

The Villages
0.80
Daytona
0.33

finishing

The Villages+0.00on par
Daytona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

The Villages ↓

Daytona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

The Villages or draw
82%
The Villages or Daytona
75%
Draw or Daytona
43%

Winning margin

The Villages wins by 2+
30%
Daytona wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

The Villages 1+ goals
79%
The Villages 2+ goals
46%
The Villages 3+ goals
21%
Daytona 1+ goals
52%
Daytona 2+ goals
17%
Daytona 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

The Villages (draw refunded)
76%
Daytona (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

The Villages at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Daytona away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

The Villages attack 2.80 + Daytona defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Daytona attack 0.67 + The Villages defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

The Villages scores more
57%
level
25%
Daytona scores more
18%

The Villages at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: The Villages host Daytona

May 23, 2020: The Villages take on Daytona in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

The Villages host Daytona at The Villages Polo Field (The Villages, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.