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Thalgau vs Salzburger AK — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Thalgau
Thalgau
FT
2 – 1
Salzburger AK
Salzburger AK
11/5/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 15Sportplatz Thalgau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Thalgau51%
×Draw20%
Salzburger AK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thalgau
2.28
Salzburger AK
1.67

Thalgau creates 37% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

creates per match

Thalgau
2.54
Salzburger AK
1.44

allows per match

Thalgau
1.90
Salzburger AK
2.02

finishing

Thalgau+0.00on par
Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thalgau ↓

Salzburger AK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Thalgau or draw
72%
Thalgau or Salzburger AK
80%
Draw or Salzburger AK
49%

Winning margin

Thalgau wins by 2+
31%
Salzburger AK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Thalgau 1+ goals
90%
Thalgau 2+ goals
66%
Thalgau 3+ goals
39%
Salzburger AK 1+ goals
81%
Salzburger AK 2+ goals
50%
Salzburger AK 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Thalgau (draw refunded)
64%
Salzburger AK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thalgau at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.90 · 82 matches

Salzburger AK away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thalgau attack 2.54 + Salzburger AK defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.28

Salzburger AK attack 1.44 + Thalgau defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Thalgau scores more
51%
level
20%
Salzburger AK scores more
28%

Thalgau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Thalgau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thalgau vs Salzburger AK

Thalgau beat Salzburger AK 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Thalgau in Thalgau.