Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thailand vs Malaysia — ASEAN Championship 2025

Thailand
Thailand
Preview
12:00
Malaysia
Malaysia
8/1/2026ASEAN ChampionshipASEAN Championship · Group Stage - 3
Big match
65%
Thailand
model favours
65%21%14%

Thailand are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Thailand65%
×Draw21%
Malaysia14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thailand
2.00
Malaysia
0.80

Thailand creates 150% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Thailand
2.43
Malaysia
0.75

allows per match

Thailand
0.86
Malaysia
1.58

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par
Malaysia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

Malaysia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Thailand or draw
86%
Thailand or Malaysia
79%
Draw or Malaysia
35%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+
40%
Malaysia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals
86%
Thailand 2+ goals
59%
Thailand 3+ goals
32%
Malaysia 1+ goals
55%
Malaysia 2+ goals
19%
Malaysia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)
82%
Malaysia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Malaysia away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 2.43 + Malaysia defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

Malaysia attack 0.75 + Thailand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Thailand scores more
65%
level
21%
Malaysia scores more
14%

Thailand at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Thailand score first in only 18% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Thailand
DDWWW
Malaysia
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thailand face Malaysia (ASEAN Championship)

ASEAN Championship returns with Thailand hosting Malaysia. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.