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Thailand vs Malaysia — AFF Championship 2018

Thailand
Thailand
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Malaysia
Malaysia
12/5/2018AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Semi-finalsRajamangala National Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Thailand65%
×Draw20%
Malaysia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thailand
2.04
Malaysia
0.84

Thailand creates 143% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Thailand
2.43
Malaysia
0.82

allows per match

Thailand
0.86
Malaysia
1.64

finishing

Thailand+0.00on par
Malaysia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thailand ↓

Malaysia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Thailand or draw
85%
Thailand or Malaysia
80%
Draw or Malaysia
35%

Winning margin

Thailand wins by 2+
40%
Malaysia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Thailand 1+ goals
87%
Thailand 2+ goals
60%
Thailand 3+ goals
33%
Malaysia 1+ goals
57%
Malaysia 2+ goals
21%
Malaysia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Thailand (draw refunded)
82%
Malaysia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thailand at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Malaysia away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thailand attack 2.43 + Malaysia defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.04

Malaysia attack 0.82 + Thailand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Thailand scores more
65%
level
20%
Malaysia scores more
15%

Thailand at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Thailand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thailand vs Malaysia

Thailand and Malaysia drew 2-2 in AFF Championship on December 5, 2018.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium (Bangkok).