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Texas United vs Brazos Valley — USL League Two 2018

Texas United
Texas United
PST
00:00
Brazos Valley
Brazos Valley
5/28/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 14Texas Airhogs Stadium (Grand Prairie, TX)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Texas United54%
×Draw20%
Brazos Valley27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Texas United
2.38
Brazos Valley
1.65

Texas United creates 44% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

Texas United
3.09
Brazos Valley
2.12

allows per match

Texas United
1.17
Brazos Valley
1.67

finishing

Texas United+0.00on par
Brazos Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Texas United ↓

Brazos Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Texas United or draw
73%
Texas United or Brazos Valley
80%
Draw or Brazos Valley
46%

Winning margin

Texas United wins by 2+
33%
Brazos Valley wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Texas United 1+ goals
91%
Texas United 2+ goals
68%
Texas United 3+ goals
42%
Brazos Valley 1+ goals
81%
Brazos Valley 2+ goals
49%
Brazos Valley 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Texas United (draw refunded)
67%
Brazos Valley (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Texas United at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Brazos Valley away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Texas United attack 3.09 + Brazos Valley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.38

Brazos Valley attack 2.12 + Texas United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Texas United scores more
54%
level
20%
Brazos Valley scores more
27%

Texas United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Texas United face Brazos Valley (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Texas United hosting Brazos Valley. Match starts May 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Texas United host Brazos Valley at Texas Airhogs Stadium (Grand Prairie, TX).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.