Tevragh-Zeïne 0–0 Nouadhibou: Result & Stats

Tevragh-Zeïne

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nouadhibou

2/12/2022

Premier League · Round 12Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Tevragh-Zeïne33%

×Draw29%

Nouadhibou38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tevragh-ZeïneExpected goals in this matchNouadhibou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.17

Tevragh-Zeïne

1.06

Nouadhibou

1.17

Nouadhibou creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

1.56

creates per match

1.66

0.69

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Tevragh-Zeïne

1.56

Nouadhibou

1.66

allows per match

Tevragh-Zeïne

0.69

Nouadhibou

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tevragh-Zeïne+0.00on par

Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tevragh-Zeïne ↓

Nouadhibou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tevragh-Zeïne or draw

62%

Tevragh-Zeïne or Nouadhibou

71%

Draw or Nouadhibou

67%

Winning margin

Tevragh-Zeïne wins by 2+

13%

Nouadhibou wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tevragh-Zeïne 1+ goals

65%

Tevragh-Zeïne 2+ goals

29%

Tevragh-Zeïne 3+ goals

9%

Nouadhibou 1+ goals

69%

Nouadhibou 2+ goals

33%

Nouadhibou 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tevragh-Zeïne (draw refunded)

46%

Nouadhibou (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tevragh-Zeïne at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.69 · 78 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tevragh-Zeïne attack 1.56 + Nouadhibou defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nouadhibou attack 1.66 + Tevragh-Zeïne defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tevragh-Zeïne scores more

33%

level

29%

Nouadhibou scores more

38%

Nouadhibou at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff