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Teruel vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Teruel
Teruel
Preview
16:00
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
1/17/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Pinilla
33%
Teruel
model favours
33%34%32%
0–0
likely score
76%
under 2.5 goals
32%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teruel33%
×Draw34%
Villarreal II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teruel
0.85
Villarreal II
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teruel
0.63
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Teruel
0.47
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Teruel+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teruel ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Teruel or draw
68%
Teruel or Villarreal II
66%
Draw or Villarreal II
67%

Winning margin

Teruel wins by 2+
11%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Teruel 1+ goals
57%
Teruel 2+ goals
21%
Teruel 3+ goals
5%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
56%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
20%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Teruel (draw refunded)
51%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teruel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teruel attack 0.63 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Teruel defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Teruel scores more
33%
level
34%
Villarreal II scores more
32%

Teruel at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Teruel
LDLDL
II
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Teruel face Villarreal II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Teruel hosting Villarreal II. Match starts January 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Teruel host Villarreal II at Pinilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.